Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 61.145301 71.368411 82.461724 95.354498 109.885679 125.715333 144.221374
2024-12-22 41.981036 54.837419 70.080504 89.319920 112.774783 140.251158 174.668207
2024-12-29 34.220890 48.710408 67.069930 91.678581 123.394805 162.460752 213.727435
2025-01-05 27.764055 42.654106 62.651245 90.870016 128.973410 177.881765 244.524669
2025-01-12 25.024864 40.951146 63.380540 96.363419 142.563181 203.788710 289.648816
2025-01-19 19.916319 34.940267 57.222207 91.465351 141.318200 209.612514 308.252554
2025-01-26 17.841050 33.139928 56.802203 94.469025 150.996271 230.453475 347.846120
2025-02-02 16.790609 32.779882 58.421214 100.478272 165.224423 258.204128 398.165737
2025-02-09 15.205140 31.262864 57.992863 103.191668 174.584266 279.321774 439.924613
2025-02-16 13.627248 29.507271 56.935554 104.716081 182.082390 297.928410 478.713772
2025-02-23 12.001151 27.406044 55.031838 104.616584 186.908018 312.635127 512.240359
2025-03-02 10.763084 25.849376 53.873771 105.586447 193.371483 329.970130 550.225829
2025-03-09 9.538012 24.293292 52.839143 107.201608 201.865255 352.211239 598.842385
2025-03-16 7.457553 20.569180 47.351331 100.517026 196.212081 352.247354 613.893733
2025-03-23 6.701791 19.605996 47.029715 103.116472 206.466840 378.126151 670.408655
2025-03-30 5.724125 17.908880 44.984774 102.224328 210.453691 393.869510 711.380572
2025-04-06 5.461570 17.921318 46.488188 108.281341 227.206373 431.528414 789.215633
2025-04-13 4.364701 15.512974 42.431113 102.880997 222.595782 432.843054 807.533869
2025-04-20 4.014349 15.058517 42.661034 106.193219 234.373778 462.701551 874.298650
2025-04-27 3.896834 15.253244 44.411252 112.814740 252.808786 504.893418 963.288883
2025-05-04 3.575850 14.764051 44.467332 115.802508 264.365431 535.419872 1033.528057
2025-05-11 3.220537 14.080346 43.952815 117.480519 273.415176 561.815416 1097.578460
2025-05-18 2.823981 13.154839 42.696691 117.371008 278.851450 581.869345 1151.300598